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Core Retail Sales: Grocery Is Masking Discretionary Freeze

By Jon Vale

CloudC4 Exclusive · Economic · Updated Aug 14, 9:27 AM ET

Consumers are trading down to essentials, creating a headline that hides the real weakness in the economy.

The tape after the core retail print — groceries held; discretionary spending did not.
The tape after the core retail print — groceries held; discretionary spending did not.
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Key Points

  • Headline growth masks a freeze in discretionary spending.
  • Consumers are trading down to essentials like groceries.
  • Investors are positioning for a Fed pause based on data quality.

What To Watch

  • The breakdown of discretionary vs. essential categories in the print.
  • The Fed's reaction to the composition of consumer spending.