Speculators Hold EUR Short Bias Ahead of CFTC Report

Traders are positioned for a weaker euro, but the data may not confirm the move.

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Key Points

Speculative traders are net short the euro
The COT report shows how large speculators are positioned
A change in the net short position could lead to volatility

What To Watch

The CFTC report release at 11:30 AM ET
Any significant change in the net short position
Volatility in the euro market following the report

Market Analysis

How the tape may move from the last update’s mark — not from the open, and not the session % already printed.

The net short position suggests traders are expecting a weaker euro. If the data confirms this, the euro may continue to fall. If the data shows a shift in sentiment, the euro may rally.

Expected Move From Here -1.5% to +2.0% From last update, not from the open

Certainty 62%

Why

The data may not confirm the bearish view, leading to a rally in the euro.