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Retail Sales Look Firm Because Everything Is on Sale
The June surge was fueled by World Cup and Prime Day discounts; today's print reveals if the consumer is tapped out or just timing their purchases.
Key Points
- The June spike was a one-off discount event driven by World Cup and Prime Day sales.
- Investors are testing if the pullback is due to income constraints or just timing.
- The control group print is the true test of demand, excluding gas and autos.
What To Watch
- A sharp decline in the control group, excluding gas and autos.
- A freeze in discretionary categories like apparel and electronics.
- A repricing of Fed rate cuts if the miss signals a tapped-out consumer.